Support to the qualitative risk analysis in the framework of the Bando Mutamenti project – Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation
Elaborated by: Supported by: In the context of:
The main goal of this project has been the support aimed at the qualitative climate risk assessment for the local authorities that obtained funds provided by Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation. The preliminary evaluation conducted in these risk assessments will promote the development of local projects by authorities in the regions of Piedmont, Val d’Aosta and Liguria in order to increase the resilience level of such areas to the effects of climate change. Local territories should adopt policies and plans to develop new economic, social and environmental models in order to adapt and resist to future stresses caused by climate change, increase the necessary level of resilience and assist local communities to effectively respond to those challenges posed by climate change.
Carried out activities:
The carried out activities have focused on:
- The identification of climate hazards based on the contents of the winning proposals by selecting indicators that interest change in precipitations and temperature regime such as: fires (droughts), hydro-geological hazard, floods, heatwaves and mountains climate hazards and orchard system. It was analyzed the observed climate using re-analysis procedure at 2km resolution recently developed by CMCC Foundation (https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5729/6/8/88/pdf) based on climate indicators known by scientific literature, as ETCCDI (https://www.clivar.org/clivar-panels/etccdi/indices-data/indices-data), but also customized indicators to satisfy the needs of analyzed projects. For example, indicators as: temperatures (e.g. heatwave and ice days) rain and snow precipitation (e.g. drought and extreme events). The analysis has focused not only on the observed and current climate conditions but, for the same indicators, it has been considered the expected future climate variations of climate change for the period around 2050 based on the RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the selected indicators for temperatures, rain and snow precipitations and ice days.
- The exposure sample for each analyzed area has been identified starting from the contents of winning proposals and on the related climate hazard. For example, the selected elements have been about the following exposure system: forests, lake, mountain villages (population), winter and summer tourism, infrastructures, human settlements, built environment, natural system and agricultural system.
- The design of a survey based on the identified exposure systems. Each survey has been submitted to the members of local winning communities in order to identify and collect data and information (where available) for vulnerability indicators to understand the susceptibility of different local territories present in the study;
- The qualitative definition of potential risks based on the answer received for each survey submitted during the stakeholder engagement process. Finally, it has been defined the possible solution for the local communities to adapt in the future and in order to increase the level of resilience for the expected future variation.
Dataclime platform gives the possibility to view and download maps and times series of climate hazard indicators for the observed climate and for the expected future anomalies using high resolution climate projections developed by CMCC and climate projections built by other programs and projects.